INSTITUTIONAL DECAY THREATENS SOUTH AFRICA'S MARCH TO PROSPERITY
The existence of cul-de-sacs in old medieval towns is a well-documented phenomenon in architecture. They existed due to the organic and haphazard expansion of towns and the need for walls and other fortifications against enemies. It would appear that South Africa has recently met more than one of these obstacles, with important implications for economic policy in general and for the metals and engineering sector in particular.
In his Medium-Term Budget Policy Speech in October, Finance Minister Nhlanhla Nene announced that “fiscal consolidation can no longer be postponed”. This came after several warnings that fiscal expansion could not continue, lest deficit expanded out of control.
The previous Governor of the Reserve Bank, Gill Marcus, described the twin deficits of Government debt and the balance of payments as deeply uncomfortable as she watched the growing apprehension from ratings agencies, the fear of rising debt servicing costs, compounded by the potential damage from US monetary policy action on the rand exchange rate and capital outflows. Last week’s budget speech had as its theme fiscal credibility, and most commentators argue that the Minister succeeded in accomplishing that goal.
A second obstacle (a “binding constraint” in industrial policy parlance), electricity, is now a significant factor. It is not immediately obvious how this has been reflected in the budget. The National Development Plan (NDP) did not get much attention in the budget speech, but the Budget Review document handed out contained much more detail and showed blatant contradictions and ambivalence. The Budget Review says that the economy should shift over the long term to the tradable sectors through more investment in manufactured exports and should move beyond the core minerals base. It says that investment should be in dynamic sectors that transfer ownership and economic structure.
However, the self-same Budget Review document says that, given the electricity constraint, in the medium term (over the next 7 years) a less energy-intensive growth path should be pursued. This means support for tourism, agriculture, agro-processing, light engineering and services.
The electricity crisis is of two makings: the country did not invest enough in expanding its power generation capacity and recklessly neglected maintenance. South Africa had a 40% surplus power generation capacity in 1984/5, with a generation capacity of 45 000 megawatts. Today the economy is estimated to be 100% larger (manufacturing is 70% larger) and, speculatively, available generation capacity is 44 000 megawatts.
It is estimated that at one time in December 2014, when maintenance took place, we had 40% of that capacity unserviceable. The reserve margin of 31% in 1994 went down to 7% in 2007 and is non-existent now. The benchmark result for maintenance is to have only 1% unplanned production losses, which was more or less the state of affairs in 2005. Deferred maintenance days have risen from 1500 in 2006 to 7000 days in 2013/14. Therefore, average unplanned production losses have risen from 1% in 2005 to 15% today.
These two issues, fiscal credibility and the electricity constraint, have serious consequences for how the Minister mixed the medicine that he decided to administer to the economy. The other symptoms presented by the patient, the SA economy, are low growth, the balance of payments deficit, persistent high inflation, industrial uncertainty and the need for policy certainty. At least in the short term, the prerequisite to contain Government spending, the necessity to conserve energy and the need to alleviate the balance of payments are clearly conflicting objectives.
How did Minister Nene do it? The budget documents argue that spending cuts will not damage growth – capital expenditure continues, the Manufacturing Competiveness Enhancement Programme gets more resources, Special Economic Zone construction continues, the Jobs Fund is strengthened, small business gets a boost and there is relief on unemployment insurance fund contributions – while tax increases are marginal and, therefore, too small to damage growth.
The success of the Government’s plans for its finances is completely dependent on the assumption of economic growth resuming, with the latter largely pinned on export growth accelerating and the electricity constraint being resolved. In the short term, the probability of export volume growth pulling the economy out of its doldrums, thus alleviating the balance of payments challenge, is not high. It would appear that there is dependence on a depreciating exchange rate, resulting in higher rand export earnings and simultaneously lowering import demand due to the higher rand prices of imports. Very soft international demand and exports to hard-hit, commodity-dependent countries in Africa will not do the trick.
Electricity supply and the country’s ability to export and earn foreign exchange are inextricably linked. The highest electricity users/sectors in the economy are also the foreign exchange earners, namely non-ferrous metals (aluminium, copper, zinc), basic iron and steel, non-metallic minerals (gold, diamonds, etc), mining, paper and paper products and chemicals. As these users install their own generation capacity, powerful diesel generators are needed. According to the latest foreign trade statistics, this already has an impact on diesel imports, thus harming the balance of payments even further.
The statement that only low-import and electricity-light sectors would be supported over the medium term is backed up by a table in the budget review document, with sectors ordered from low- to high-energy intensive. It seems that this is a serious point of departure for policy in the foreseeable future, and this can only spell doom for re-industrialisation and beneficiation.
Furthermore, the measures announced to increase taxes may also set in motion dynamics that could have unintended consequences. The clear method used is indirect taxes, but not called VAT. The great concern is that virtually all measures will tax the income-producing and productive side of the economy. Although company taxes are not going up, virtually all the increases will hit the productive sector directly: the fuel levy (30 cents/l), the electricity levy (from 3,5 to 5,5cents/kwh) and the energy efficiency levy (from 45 to 95 cents per kwh), with the diesel rebates to farmers and others curtailed. Most of the indirect tax increases to companies will be passed on to consumers, so consumption expenditure in the economy will not be supported by any of these measures.
At the best of times, domestic economic growth is pedestrian, and so far the large investment projects have not had the anticipated stimulatory impact. The State could experience its own industrial relations instability during 2015, further jeopardizing fiscal credibility. Inflation remains a problem and both the electricity tariff and the fuel levy increases may cause inflation to accelerate on top of widely-expected food-price increases due to the drought.
Budget documents distributed by the Treasury state several times that all measures, including the bailouts to struggling State-owned enterprises, will be “deficit neutral”. That means that taxpayers are asked to fill the gaps. The South African financial system was not in doubt when the US and EU crises occurred. Even the fiscal remedies applied in SA since the crisis could not be faulted.
If anything, this budget highlights the extent to which institutional decay can throw the country’s path to prosperity off track. Most of the adjustments are needed to prop up institutions or functions that are failing. The planning for and provision of electricity has failed, local authorities use resale electricity tariff income to make up for their failed ability to keep their local authorities functioning and the Road Accident Fund is in a mess. Allowing surpluses to build up in the Unemployment Insurance Fund and not adjusting in time also represents sunk costs for companies. The same can be said of the surpluses building up in the SETAs.
The support for Eskom is a case in point: it needs R23 billion immediately (more than the total tax deficit). Electricity tariffs will increase, State assets will be sold and consideration will be given to converting the Government’s subordinated loan to equity. We should not be in the unenviable Ksituation in which we now find ourselves. South Africa deserves much, much better.
Henk Langenhoven is the Chief Economist of the Steel and Engineering Industries Federation of Southern Africa (SEIFSA).
Press Release - 2015/03/06: STRIKING A HEALTHY BALANCE BETWEEN INTERNATIONAL COMPETITION AND DUMPING
The Southern African metals and engineering sector has been faced with numerous challenges over many years. A flood of cheap imports, unfair competition from highly-subsidized countries such as China, dumping as well as stagnant economic growth are among the main challenges facing the sector.
In South Africa, manufacturing exports represent an estimated 35% of production, while imports have captured nearly 45% of the domestic market. On the other hand, the metals and engineering sector exports 60% of its products and competes with imports for 60% of the domestic market.
“For companies operating in the metals and engineering sector to survive in such turbulent economic times, it is vitally important that robust discussions are held and strategies aimed at ensuring the survival of the sector devised. The upcoming Indaba will provide a platform for all stakeholders in this important sector not only to engage robustly on matters impacting the sector, but also to come up with sustainable growth solutions that would see the sector rise out of the doldrums,” Steel and Engineering Industries Federation of Southern Africa (SEIFSA) Chief Executive Officer Kaizer Nyatsumba said.
Exploring opportunities and sharing their insights on this important topic will be the following speakers:
- University of South Africa’s School of Law Professor Omphemetse Sibanda;
- Investec Bank Chief Economist Annabel Bishop;
- Frontier Advisory Chief Executive Officer Martyn Davies;
- CBC Fasteners Chief Executive Officer Rob Pietersma;
- and SEIFSA Chief Economist Henk Langenhoven.
To be attended by policy and decision makers, business owners, senior executives and other stakeholders in the metals and engineering sector in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region, the Metals and Engineering Indaba will focus on the following topics, among others:
- Does Manufacturing Have a Future in Southern Africa?
- Striking a Healthy Balance Between International Competition and Dumping
- Transformation in the Metals and Engineering Sector
- International Competitiveness and Intra-African Trade
- South Africa and the National Development Plan
- Southern Africa and the Huge Infrastructure Backlog – How To Finance It?
Organised and hosted by SEIFSA, the Indaba is aimed at encouraging growth in the sector, which has under-performed over the past five years.
The conference, which will take place at Emperor’s Palace in Ekurhuleni, will bring together business owners, trade unionists and policymakers from across the SADC to deliberate on turn-around strategies.
Press Release - 2015/03/04: SEIFSA BURSARY SCHEME CLOSES CRITICAL SKILLS GAP
The SEIFSA bursaries were offered to first-year students studying towards electrical, civil, industrial, mechanical, chemical and metallurgical engineering in Universities and Universities of Technology across South Africa.
In addition to the 10 first-year bursaries, SEIFSA has also continued to fund seven existing SEIFSA bursary recipients in second and third years of study.
SEIFSA Human Capital and Skills Development Executive Mustak Ally said that it was critically important that companies operating in the metals and engineering sector contributed towards building a pipeline of skills required not only by the sector, but also by South Africa in general.
“As an employer Federation, we believe that it is critically important that we also play a role in the development of engineering skills that are desperately needed in our sector and in our country,” Mr Ally said.
Every year SEIFSA awards tertiary education bursaries to individuals pursuing studies in the engineering sciences in the steel and engineering environment. These bursaries are either new bursary awards or for continuation of the studies for individuals already on a SEIFSA bursary from their first year.
Mr Ally said that in order to be eligible for receiving a SEIFSA bursary, applicants must be South African citizens under the age of 35, be in possession of a Grade 12 certificate with applicable Mathematics and Science results and have proof that the course cannot be attended without financial assistance.
The SEIFSA bursaries cover all or form part of the cost of tuition fees and give preference to students from previously-disadvantaged groups.
“The field of study also has to be relevant to the metals and engineering sector and fill the gap in terms of scarce and critical skills,” Mr Ally said.
In addition to funding students’ university tuition fees, SEIFSA also places the students with SEIFSA member companies upon completion of their studies.
“The manufacturing sector in South Africa has been faced with numerous challenges, including considerable competitive pressure for the industry to become more productive and compete successfully in export markets, technical skills shortage, as well as high levels of unemployment. It is against this backdrop that SEIFSA feels a need to contribute towards the eradication of technical skills shortage by contributing towards the alleviation of unemployment,” Mr Ally concluded.
Press Release - 2015/03/02: FEBRUARY PMI CONFIRMS DEPRESSING DECLINE IN CONFIDENCE
The all-important business activity sub-index for February declined by more than 26% when compared to January 2015. Although the latest level of the seasonally-adjusted index is more or less on par with the average reading over the last six months, the actual, unadjusted index has been declining for four months now.
Speaking after the release of the PMI figures today, SEIFSA Chief Economist Henk Langenhoven said it is deeply concerning that several other sub-indices indicating future demand (new orders), stock levels and employment, among others, were declining in unison. This substantiated SEIFSA’s views that the accumulation of uncertainties was seriously weighing down on the metals and engineering sector in particular and on manufacturing in general.
“These PMI indicators are short-term warnings that tough times over the medium-term are becoming more probable. SEIFSA has been warning that the sector experienced capacity under-utilisation, low recorded profit margins and very tough domestic and international market conditions,” Mr Langenhoven said.
He added that the intermittent electricity supply was causing serious harm to the sector’s production capabilities.
“One has to look past the upward distortion caused by the seasonal adjustment in January, as well as the considerable instability in recent months, by comparing the longer time periods. But even doing so does not change the picture much. Over the 12- month period (to the end of February 2015), the index declined by 5,5% and 4,9% compared to a year ago, Mr Langenhoven said.
Earlier this year SEIFSA’s analysis indicated that trends in the business activity sub- index level, as well as its rate of change, may have bottomed in the middle of 2014.
“This conclusion might have been premature if the latest data are anything to go by,” concluded Mr Langenhoven.
Press Release - 2015/02/26: RAFT OF TAXES WILL HURT THE ECONOMY FURTHER, SAYS SEIFSA
SEIFSA Chief Economist Henk Langenhoven said that while Minister Nene and his team should be commended on a delicate balancing act given our economy’s poor performance and the growing budget shortfall, nevertheless it was very concerning that, with the exception of sin and personal taxes, “virtually all the announced tax measures will hit the productive sectors of the economy the hardest”.
“Politically it may make sense not to have raised VAT, but the choice of indirectly burdening the productive side of the economy is a critical blow to growth and investment in the foreseeable future,” he said.
Mr Langenhoven said that the impact of slow economic growth and the electricity constraint had “all but put a stop to other policies to stimulate the economy, bar low energy-intensive users”. He said that the situation was set to remain for the next seven years.
Mr Langenhoven also decried the one percent increase in personal taxes for high earners.
“The taxes that were announced on individuals will hurt mainly the largest consuming part of the population and will no doubt have a negative influence on consumption expenditure, further constraining economic growth. If anything, this budget highlights the extent to which institutional decay can throw the country’s path to prosperity off track,” he said.
SEIFSA Chief Executive Officer Kaizer Nyatsumba said South Africa’s reliance on a small base of taxpayers to provide more social benefits for the growing numbers of poor people was not sustainable. He said that it was unfortunate that the Government continued to squeeze the middle class and higher income earners instead of working with the business community to grow the country’s economy and to create sustainable jobs.
“As a country, we have a big civil service bureaucracy and, without doubt, one of the biggest Cabinets in the world. Our priority should be ensuring that we have a lean and efficient public service that delivers value to the general public, with zero tolerance for any forms of corruption.
“We need to grow our economy and to see more people weaned off social benefits and absorbed into the job market. To accomplish that goal, the Government has to acknowledge business as a vital partner and ensure that there is a strong partnership involving itself, business and labour, with South Africa’s best interests coming first,” Mr Nyatsumba said.
Press Release - 2015/02/26: NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN TO TAKE CENTRE STAGE AT THE INAUGURAL SOUTHERN AFRICAN METALS AND ENGINEERING INDABA
Dubbed the long-term socio-economic development roadmap, the NDP is a policy blueprint aimed at eliminating poverty and reducing inequality in South Africa by 2030. Among other things, the plan identifies the key constraints to faster growth and presents a roadmap to a more inclusive economy that will address the country's socio-economic imbalances.
Eighteen Strategic Integrated Projects (SIPs) that would support economic development and address service delivery have been identified in the NDP. The SIPs, which are expected to provide a much-needed stimulus to South Africa’s stagnating economy, will provide new infrastructure and rehabilitate and upgrade existing infrastructure.
Unpacking the NDP and sharing their insights will be the following speakers:
- University of Potchefstroom Business School’s Professor Raymond Parsons;
- NDP Commissioner and President of International Women’s Forum South Africa Dr Vuyokazi Mahlathi;
- Pan African Capital Holdings Chief Executive Officer Dr Iraj Abedian;
- University of Cape Town academic Professor Haroon Bhorat;
- Department of Trade and Industry Deputy Director-General Dr Garth Strachan;
- And National Planning Commission member Mr Trueman Goba.
The high-calibre panel, made up of senior Government officials, business executives and academics, will analyze the NDP and discuss economic opportunities presented by the Plan and its possible impact on the South African economy in general and the manufacturing sector in particular.
To be attended by policy and decision makers, business owners, senior executives and other stakeholders in the metals and engineering sector in the Southern African Development Community (SADC), the Metals and Engineering Indaba will focus on the following topics, among others:
- Does Manufacturing Have a Future in Southern Africa?
- Striking a Healthy Balance Between International Competition and Dumping
- Transformation in the Metals and Engineering Sector
- International Competitiveness and Intra-African Trade
- South Africa and the National Development Plan
- Southern Africa and the Huge Infrastructure Backlog – How To Finance It?
Organised and hosted by the Steel and Engineering Industries Federation of Southern Africa (SEIFSA), the Indaba is aimed at encouraging growth in the sector, which has under-performed over the past five years.
SEIFSA Chief Executive Officer Kaizer Nyatsumba said the Indaba will afford both speakers and delegates an opportunity not only to participate and engage robustly with one another in a conference which will change the face of the sector in the region, but also to network and exchange ideas with industry peers and policy makers.
The conference, which will take place at Emperor’s Palace in Ekurhuleni, will bring together business owners, trade unionists and policymakers from across the SADC to deliberate on turn-around strategies.
Press Release - 2015/02/24:SEIFSA’S SEARCH FOR SOUTHERN AFRICA’S TOP PERFORMING COMPANIES CONTINUES
The Federation has urged industry players who are both its members and non-members to submit their entries for the SEIFSA Awards for Excellence before 17h00 on Friday, 24 April 2015.
SEIFSA Chief Executive Officer Kaizer Nyatsumba said the Awards will offer a great opportunity for companies operating in the vital metals and engineering sector to receive well-deserved recognition by industry peers for their capabilities, expertise and innovation.
“It is crucial that companies which excel at what they do are recognised for their contributions and encouraged to do more,” Mr Nyatsumba said.
The SEIFSA Awards for Excellence offer 10 different categories; manufacturers in metals and engineering operating in Southern Africa are invited to submit their entries. The 10 categories are:
- The Most Innovative Company of the Year, which will be awarded to a company which showed the highest level of innovation in research and development or production in 2014.
- The Health and Safety Award of the Year will be offered to a company with the best legal compliance record in Health and Safety or the lowest Lost-Time Injury Frequency Rate in 2014.
- Entries are also invited from companies whose Corporate Social Investment (CSI) programme/s in 2014 had a major impact on the lives of its beneficiaries.
- Companies rated the highest in customer service performance in 2014 will receive the Customer Service Award of the Year.
- The Most Transformed Company of the Year award will be received by a company that showed the highest transformation level in the composition of its Board of Directors, Executive Management and Managerial Team in 2014. This award category pits companies employing fewer than 100 people against those of similar size, and companies employing more than 100 companies against others of similar size.
- This is the Decade of the Artisan, and an award will be made to the company that trained the highest number of artisans in 2014.
- The Environment Stewardship Award will go to a company that has made the biggest or best strides towards conserving the environment or mitigating the impact of its operations on the environment in 2014.
- SEIFSA member companies and affiliated Associations will also be honoured.
Winners of the SEIFSA Awards for excellence will be honoured in a ceremony that will take place on the first day of the two-day Southern African Metals and Engineering Indaba, scheduled to take place on 28 and 29 May at Emperors Palace, in Ekurhuleni.
Entrants do not have to be members of SEIFSA to participate – the Awards are open to all companies in the sector.
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Press Release - 2015/02/19: SEIFSA STRONGLY OPPOSES IMPOSITION OF ADDITIONAL TAXES ON BUSINESS
Speaking ahead of the 2015-16 Budget Speech to be delivered by Finance Minister Nhlanhla Nene on 25 February, SEIFSA Chief Executive Officer Kaizer Nyatsumba said that the struggling South African business community – especially in the metals and engineering sector – cannot afford to pay any additional taxes to Government.
“For a developing country struggling for investment, South Africa ranks among countries in the world with relatively high corporate taxes. Businesses in South Africa are already heavily taxed in the form of direct or company taxes as well as a surfeit of indirect taxes,” Mr Nyatsumba said.
His comments come amid speculation that the Minister might announce a tax hike in this year’s budget in order to close the R27 billion revenue shortfall in the next two years.
The Minister mooted the possibility of a tax increase in October last year, indicating a need to consolidate the budget deficit in the wake of revenue that keeps disappointing due to lower-than-expected economic growth.
“In South Africa, where economic growth is painfully slow and unemployment levels extremely high, the Government would be extremely ill advised to worsen the country’s already bleeding economy by imposing additional taxes on business. As things stand right now, business is struggling, with a growing number of companies downsizing,” Mr Nyatsumba said.
He said that, when South Africa is compared with its fellow BRICS countries, only India – with the advantages of a far bigger population size and competitive wages – had a corporate tax higher than South Africa’s. Compared to South Africa’s 28%, Russia’s corporate tax is 20%, Brazil’s and China’s 25%, with India at 33.99%.
Mr Nyatsumba added that the local economy needed to be stimulated through a variety of measures, including local procurement and Government tax breaks, so that it could create more jobs, and not to be hamstrung through more taxes at a time when business is struggling for survival.
Mr Nyatsumba said that, in its efforts to generate more revenue, the Government would have “to be extremely careful to avoid killing or even suffocating the goose that lays the golden egg,” which includes the middle class and high earners.
“In a country with a small tax-paying population, our pre-occupation should be to grow the economy in order create more employment and to see more people moving to the higher threshold of personal taxes, and not to punish higher income earners by raising taxes,” Mr Nyatsumba said.
Instead, he said, the Government’s priority should be ensuring that every tax rand is used wisely, to the benefit of the country, and that it does not end up in the pockets of some selfish individuals through corruption.
Mr Nyatsumba said that while it was understood that the Government needed more revenue, it could accomplish that goal by ensuring that South Africa was viewed more favourably as a foreign investment destination and by ensuring that greater efficiency existed in all tiers of government, including state-owned companies. He said that options available to the Treasury to raise funds included upward adjustments to the fuel levy and sin taxes, “in addition to better management of public finances”.
Press Release - 2015/01/16: MINISTER ROB DAVIES, ARCELORMITTAL CEO PAUL O’FLAHERTY AND BUSINESS LEADERSHIP SOUTH AFRICA CHAIRMAN BOBBY GODSELL AMONG SPEAKERS AT METALS INDABA’S FIRST PLENARY SESSION
Answering that question and sharing their insights will be speakers and panelists Trade and Industry Minister Dr Rob Davies, ArcelorMittal Chief Executive Officer Mr Paul O’Flaherty, Deputy Chairman of the South African Institute of International Affairs and Political Commentator Mr Moeletsi Mbeki, Democratic Alliance Shadow Minister of Trade and Industry Mr Geordin Hill-Lewis, as well as Business Leadership South Africa Chairman and former Anglo Gold Ashanti Chief Executive Officer Mr Bobby Godsell.
The high-calibre panel, made up of revered players in the South African economy, will dissect the topic and debate everything related to manufacturing in Southern Africa. Panelists will also field questions from the floor.
According to the South African Reserve Bank, the manufacturing sector is 29% larger today than 10 years ago, 66% larger than 20 years ago and 71% larger than 30 years ago. However, its share of the economy declined first from 20% in 1983 to 19% in 1993, and then further still to 18% in 2003 and eventually to 16 % in 2013. So, manufacturing has declined by a percentage point each decade in South Africa!
Manufacturing exports represent an estimated 35% of production, while imports have captured nearly 45% of the domestic market. On the other hand, the metals and engineering sector exports 60% of its products and competes with imports for 60% of the domestic market.
To be attended by policy and decision makers, business owners, senior executives and other stakeholders in the metals and engineering sector in the Southern African Development Community (SADC), the Metals and Engineering Indaba will focus on the following topics, among others:
- Does Manufacturing Have a Future in Southern Africa?
- Striking a Healthy Balance Between International Competition and Dumping
- Transformation in the Metals and Engineering Sector
- International Competitiveness and Intra-African Trade
- South Africa and the National Development Plan
- Southern Africa and the Huge Infrastructure Backlog – How To Finance It?
Among the challenges faced by the regional manufacturing sector are a flood of cheap imports, unfair competition from highly-subsidized countries such as China, rising production and labour costs as well as stagnant economic growth.
Organised and hosted by the Steel and Engineering Industries Federation of Southern Africa (SEIFSA), the Southern African Metals and Engineering Indaba is aimed at encouraging growth in the sector, which has under-performed over the past five years.
SEIFSA Chief Executive Officer Kaizer Nyatsumba said the Indaba will afford both speakers and delegates an opportunity not only to participate and engage robustly with one another in a conference which will change the face of the sector in the region, but also to network and exchange ideas with industry peers and policy makers.
Mr Nyatsumba said that it was hoped that over the next few years the Southern African Metals and Engineering Indaba will reach the same heights as the annual Mining Indaba.
Among the key focus areas of the inaugural conference will be an update on and concrete plans related to the Government’s ambitious National Development Plan.
The conference will bring together business owners, trade unionists and policymakers from across the Southern African Development Community to deliberate on turn-around strategies.
For more information, potential delegates, sponsors and exhibitors should visit www.meindaba.co.za.